Saturday, November 19, 2016

Deflationary recession is now increasingly probable!

US bond yield has gone up by 50% in just 2 months reversing the long term trend!  This begun before  the recent US presidential election and is rapidly rising since the election, in the last couple of weeks.

The yield increase causes the financial asset values and the value of debt held as collateral - to decrease. This is highly deflationary! It can no longer be offset by "quantitative easing"(*) and any of the recently employed financial stimulation techniques, because injecting more cash into circulation causes the interest rates to increase or to decline less rapidly, which prevents the fixed assets and bond prices to recover or to reverse the declining trend. Providing a cash stimulus may even accelerate the banking and corporate collateral collapse by raising the interest rates and yields even further! On the other hand, the recently favored method of stimulating the large corporate economy by offering them cheap low interest credit might not work anymore (**) now that the interest rates have risen and the large corporate assets that can be used as the collateral for new loans - have declined in value!

The current global corporate economy has entered a classical two "poison pills" stage (***)! One "poison pill" being the corporate "globalism" - a credit-based corporate expansion (with austerity for everybody else), while the other "poison pill" being the financial stimulus policy of expanding the monetary mass. One "poison pill" solution neutralizes the effects of the other thus compelling the ruling elites to employ both of them alternatively resulting in the slower (but surer) decline as opposed to applying any one of the "solutions" alone which would lead to a rapid economic collapse!

Stan Bleszynski

Notes:

(*) The reason monetary stimulus cannot reverse the current deflationary assets' collapse (though it may produce a localized price inflation for services, food and commodities) is that the global amount of fixed yield investment assets is about two orders of magnitude higher than the amount of monetary mass in circulation. Any increase in monetary mass attempting to push inflation and yields up would therefore be countered by strong deflationary decline of the fixed-yield assets held by corporations, investment funds and governments.

(**) Cheap credit offered at low interest rates, might still work for small property owners who unlike large corporations, are not yet fully credit-collateral-tapped-out! This would also prevent or would slow down the property collapse.

(***) I have seen this technique employed successfully for manipulating a victim into self-destruction that is very general and not limited to economy but used extensively in consumer marketing and other areas as well. It is based on promoting two equally destructive but opposing paths , products, ideologies or beliefs, with one countering the other. The victim is entrapped into pursuing them both switching alternatively from one to the other while spiraling into oblivion. To make this work, all choices other than those two have to be hidden from view or obfuscated. It is good to know about that what is hitting us, so that we can take precautions choosing something unpredictable and none of the above. 8-:)

Monday, November 14, 2016

Quote of the day

... racism is supposedly "attacked at its root" by social engineering premised on attitude manipulation and a causal original sin.
Agency and responsibility are turned away from attacking the racist dominance structure directly; by focusing on a false and ancillary "cause", by blaming the internal beliefs of some individuals instead of emphasizing the needed praxis of liberation of all individuals subjected to the dominance hierarchy.
What results is that the slaves fight among themselves to ensure that they are oppressed fairly. There is a focus on defining and enforcing inter-slave rules instead of supporting rebellion.

http://activistteacher.blogspot.ca/2011/04/how-anti-racism-protects-class.html
(By Denis G. Rancourt)

Friday, November 11, 2016

Simultaneous defeat of fake "democratic" and fake "republican" establishment

Good luck to our southern neighbors!   What's next for us?  I would love to see our non-Liberals, Regressive Conservatives and Archaic Democrats nicely voted out.  All together.
Stan

DEAR LIBERAL FRIENDS: We need to talk...

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Excessive industrial regulatory approvals - economic weapon of mass-destruction!

I wrote a note about it some time ago, see here .  It appears, the regulatory industrial product approval "game" is still spreading like a disease, worldwide, where the winners are certification consultants and the losers are everyone else.    It seems to be unstoppable except for some of the most eager adopters going out of business sooner than the rest of them, so there may be some hope.

The key-word here is "moderation".  Nobody advocates returning to the 19-th century industrial practices of producing unsafe consumer appliances such as  gasoline-fueled irons ("Burn Down Your House" model 1900) or "Coffe-Cutor" heater  .   But, in my humble opinion, things have gone too far following a general profitable (to them) tendency of our left-leaning decision makers and politicians to legislate all risk out of life.

Adoption of excessive regulatory certification is imposing a requirement to re-approve every product each  time one makes a model upgrade or a change.  This is resulting in increasing the cost of doing business in manufacturing!  Especially in the countries like Canada, US and Europe where the cost of doing business is already very high.  The natural response of management against rising costs is shifting production to cheaper countries, resulting in the loss of manufacturing jobs and stagnant economies with careers opportunities eventually limited to firefighters, cops and a certain old profession ...   8-:)




Friday, July 1, 2016

Brexit - UK for Ukraine - Russian connection?

In my personal opinion, the only political force vitally interested in weakening the European Union by possibly openly financing many if not all of the European nationalistic splinter movements - is Russia, in a tit-for-tat action against Europe's support for the anti-Russia splinter movements in the post-Soviet block. Especially in the Ukraine.

Interestingly, a country that has become the most vocally anti-Russian - Poland, has become the most recent target of unprecedented attacks by Nigel Farage's UKIP supporters in Britain (see the links below). For example the Polish Institute in London (POSK) has been vandalised by grafitti for the first time in its over 60 years history and many Polish residents in Britain has been, for the first time in recent history, targeted by neatly printed plastic-framed leaflets with insulting contents totally inconsistent with the generally tolerant British tradition.
Somebody has spent real money on all that.
Who?
Why was the former London Mayor Boris Johnson unexpectedly "discouraged" (by British intelligence services?) from becoming the new prime minister, and [updated 04/07/2016] why did UKIP leader Nigel Farage suddenly have to resign today?   A Russian connection perhaps?

References:

The rise in hate crime reports is a dark sign of post-Brexit Britain
Polish boy, 11, finds 'leave EU' card
Graffiti at a Polish center in London sends a clear message: Some 'Brexit' supporters want immigrants out
Nigel Farage's relationship with Russian media comes under scrutiny
Marine Le Pen's Party Asks Russia for €27 Million Loan
A comparison of Germany's AfD and France's National Front
EU referendum: Boris Johnson labelled a 'Putin apologist' after Russia remarks

 ----------------------
Update on the the UKIP financing:

  http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-38650596
Arron Banks, the former UKIP donor who bankrolled the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union, is making a move into the media sector by backing an anti-establishment news website that launches tomorrow.
and

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arron_Banks
Occupation Businessman Net worth £100 million[1] Spouse(s) Ekaterina Paderina
the following is also interesting:
According to Companies House records, Banks has set up 37 different companies using slight variations of his name. The names used by Banks are Aron Fraser Andrew Banks, Arron Andrew Fraser Banks, Arron Fraser Andrew Banks and Arron Banks. The profiles for the first three names all use the same date of birth but register different lists of companies. When asked by The Guardian about this, he declined to answer questions on the topic.[19] In 2016, the leaked Panama Papers indicated Banks was the shareholder of British Virgin Islands company PRI Holdings Limited, which was the sole shareholder of African Strategic Resources Limited.[20] However, a spokesperson for Banks has denied any links to the lawyer named and denies that Banks was involved with the Papers.[21]

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Brexit

Brexit, a discussion with friend


Dav0:    

While I feel it's important to say what's on your mind (and we both do!).
There is a grey area when it comes to racism, xenophobia etc. It's come to
light in the UK in the last few days for instance.

S: 

Re: xenophopia

Absolutely!   I didn't really explain a while back why I was (and am) always pro EU when you were questioning it and voted against Lisbon Treaty.  The reason is my experience in Germany in 1983-86.  I was talking then with a Russian professor of physics at University of Tel Aviv, Yuri M. a former Russian dissident from Leningrad, he was on a scholarship in Germany at that time in the same institute. He had a huge impact on my philosophy and made me rethink many of my beliefs. 

I was saying at that time to him that I don't see anything wrong with a moderate dose of nationalism, in the Eastern European context, that would counterbalance that dreadful Soviet monostate and counteract the communist ideology. It was just exactly the same reaction as the Brits rejecting the EU centralism right now. 

His view was the opposite - he cautioned me against embracing any form of nationalism even a moderate one and even for a noble purpose such as fighting some centralized bureaucracy for the benefit of the people.

He said to me (around 1984) that if the Soviet Union ever collapsed, many of the individual post soviet republics, would very likely degenerate into nationalistic intolerant fiefdoms run by ruthless dictators, and people will end up worse off.  A few years later I realized that he was 100% right! 

Nationalism is not an antidote against centralized bureaucracy or against any other totalitarian political, religious, pseudo-scientific or other belief system, because nationalism is also a form of collectivism just like bureaucracy and statism.  Just like Christianity, Islam, scientific atheism, socialism, communism, fascism etc. 

By promoting nationalism, British people have replaced one form of collectivism with another, a more toxic one, in my opinion!  

What Britain and other countries need more is not replacing one collectivism with another but replacing collectivism with individualism and self-empowerement.  

Fighting collectivism can be effectively done by:

1)  embracing individualism and popularizing it by personal examples (see Ayn Rand) 

2) renouncing people (*) who believe in and strongly identify with the collectivistic belief systems

Take care,
S.

*) Only renouncing the believers, not beliefs,  works!  Very important and counter-intuitive!   Renouncing beliefs alone, debating beliefs, debunking or disproving beliefs is not  only ineffective but often makes the beliefs stronger in the minds of people by giving them our attention and publicity.  I had an insight about it in my dream earlier this year.  Renunciation of believers can be mentally reinforced (in one's mind)  by a ritual: stand at front of a group of people, raise both hands up at an angle and at front of you and then lower them down rapidly as if you were pushing something down and away, while saying in your mind or aloud "I renounce you!".  (Don't do it at work or you may get fired.)

Dav0: 

I am pro European!

I voted [in Ireland] against the version of the Lisbon treaty at that time _purely_ because in the form it was presented, they had proposed a tiered membership that I totally disagreed with.

IIRC it was somewhat rehashed and presented again, I don't think I was in Ireland second time around.

My main beef was that Poland (and the Baltics etc. IIRC) would be given membership at a lower level than say Ireland or France. I believed it was all or nothing, not some half baked version that benefited the hacks that were already in, with their snouts already well entrenched in the trough.

I was very saddened by what happened in the UK last week. I have been more saddened to see that the Brexit has given further license to those jingoist thugs who for instance have been seen hurling verbal abuse at Poles over the weekend (not sure if you heard about that). I have a great deal of time for the Poles (present company excepted ;-)    and everyone else for that matter. We are all one living, breathing, experiencing and discovering giant unified consciousness - separation is artificial.  (can't remember the exact quote, it was from a brilliant comedian - Bill Hicks - who died very young from pancreatic cancer).

One particularly derisive argument that I heard for the 'Leave' campaign was that surrendering British sovereignty to the EU was an affront to the memory of those who died in the wars fighting for Britain. The opposite is true. The whole raison d'ĂȘtre for European integration was to prevent any such atrocities like those wars from happening again.

It seems now that Scotland may have a legal argument to veto the Brexit. We'll see how it all pans out.

Have you thought about buying Sterling?
Dav0.

P.S. Re believers and beliefs - De gustibus non est disputandum. 

S:

Re: buying sterling

No, I think it is very likely to fall further (with ups and downs).  Since the banks have very little reason to remain in the UK,  it will put a huge pressure on the British establishment [causing them] to protect their personal assets (=mostly property!) by inflating the  money supply to stimulate demand (for property) and to maintain the prices.  Without a strong banking system that used to inflate the monetary mass in a non-inflationary way (by offsetting it with the equivalent debt), the next British government (Labour!) will have very little choice in that matter.  They will be printing money!   The real decline of the sterling is ahead of us.   What you have seen to date is the beginning. 

 Britain will most likely become one of the poorest countries in Europe since they have no industry that would take up the slack after the bexit (banking exit).  In my crude estimate, banking used to provide about 50% of the British GDP (official figures are lower, about 30% but I am adding the indirect contributions).   I would not be surprised if 90% of that would leave, that will leave Britain with 40% drop of the GDP.  This would have to be reflected  by a commensurate or higher drop in the sterling exchange rate - if they refrain from inflationary policy otherwise it will drop much further than that, which is IMHO much more likely.   I read George Soros' warning - he gave similar estimates.   Then, this would create some favorable condition to rebuild the manufacturing back (as long as they will not generate hyper-inflationary hickups like in Brazil or Argentina which would negate the positive effect of the drop in sterling)  - but that will probably take about 30 years, 1 generation.  Incidentally this is a very good news for Ireland because it will make reunification with the Republic attractive to N.Irish Prots, and secondly it will make some of the banks move to Dublin, lifting the property market and creating some jobs.
S.








Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Canadian NDP committs suicide by Leap Manifesto

See Leap Manifesto. Generalizations and platitudes written by slightly detached ivory tower academics and intellectuals. Fighting for all good causes and sacrificing other people's jobs on the altar of "Global Warming" nonsense. As one Alberta NDP official put it in an interview: "You would destroy Alberta's oil industry jobs - How would the folks in Ontario feel if we said we want to shut down your car manufacturing industry?" Stan